USD-JPY has struggled to keep pace with a broad-based dollar rally against. The USD-JPY has a different longer term pattern. The trend lines in the chart above are drawn from longer term charts. The top line is a downtrend line originating in March 2015. The 2018 rally (April-July) ended abruptly when testing this downtrend line. Going forward, we would expect any future strength to be contained below this trend line. Given that the market has already broken its 2018 uptrend line, we doubt that the downtrend line will get retested. Rallies will more likely fail to move above 111.75. The price action suggest that prices have already begun a downward trend. We put the first downside target at 108.50. However additional weakness all the way down to the longer term uptrend line at 107 is a distinct possibility. We will define the extent of weakness as more data becomes available.